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IMF:香港具备充裕缓冲空间应对环球风险增加_高鹰生殖中心

来源: 新华社
10:13:42

大妈抢公交方向盘IMF:香港具备充裕缓冲空间应对环球风险增加

张峻宁

    国际货币基金组织(IMF)代表团完成就香港2018年第四条磋商讨论后,代表团总结预计,全年本地生产总值实质增长维持强劲。与全球经济前景一样,香港经济面对的风险转为下行,这些风险包括贸易摩擦升温、环球金融状况较预期收紧、楼市急剧放缓及内地经济放缓幅度较预期大。代表团评估认为,香港多年来一直奉行审慎的宏观经济政策以及稳健的金融规管及监管,有助香港抵御内部及外来的可能冲击。

    

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The hedge fund shouted, "Buy gold and sell stocks" would be a once-in-a-century deal.

    The U.S. stock market has rebounded sharply this year, but in the view of the hedge fund, which has won the market for many years, this is just an episode in the bear market. Buying gold and selling stocks is now a "once-in-a-century deal".

    The hedge fund, Crescat Capital, manages about $50 million in assets. Bloomberg quoted Tavi Costa, its global macro analyst, as saying that the current consensus is that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2020 or 2021, but a large number of macro indicators they monitor show that the U.S. recession will come sooner than that.

    According to Crescat Capital, since its establishment in 2006, the annual yield has been close to 12%, beating the S&P 500 index by 8%. More noteworthy is that last year, when the hedge fund industry in the United States was howling, its global macro strategy fund made 41% of the year's negative returns.

    The MSCI global index has risen more than 10% this year, but Costa sees it as a bear market rebound. He believes that all assets have risen since the begi图鉴中国_高鹰生殖中心nning of the year, while the VIX 虐杀原形2怎么杀莫瑟_高鹰生殖中心of the panic index has dropped significantly, which is just a false impression before the trend reversal, so Crescat死不张扬的离奇命案_高鹰生殖中心 Capital's main strategy now is to do more RMB-denominated gold and short global stock markets.

    Although the U.S. stock market has rebounded sharply this year and the S&P 500 index has risen by about 13% in the year, the outlook of the U.S. business community on the economic outlook has not changed.

    At the end of last month, a survey by the National Association for Business Economics showed that three quarters of 281 resp类似管家很忙的小说_高鹰生殖中心ondents believed that the U.S. recession would occur by the end of 2021, while 42% of respondents pointed out that the recession would come by the end o给我一个吻 王珞丹_高鹰生殖中心f next year.

    As pessimistic as Tavi Costa is, 10% of economists believe the U.S. economy will fall into recession this year. Only 11% believed that the crisis would come after 2021.

    In this context, gold, as a hedge asset, has also seen a rebound this year, rising by more than 4% from the beginning of the year to the end of F猛士的士高第二集_高鹰生殖中心ebruary, breaking through the $1,300/ounce barrier at one time after breaking through 1340. It is noteworthy, however, that since February 20, gold prices have fallen by about 3%, narrowing the year's rise to 1%.

    In Goldman Sachs's view, however, the Fed's hint that the suspension of interest rate hikes and improved growth in emerging market economies will weaken the dollar and support gold prices in the future.

    * This article is from Wall Street (Wechat ID: Wallstreetcn). Open the Wall Street Gold Card Members, immediately receive the global market opportunities in 2019.

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